The object of the invention is a method and arrangement to predict at least one system event and a corresponding computer program and a corresponding machine-readable storage medium, where the event is predictable because of trends in observables over a certain period of time before the occurrence of the events. The invention can be used in particular for patient-specific monitoring of patho-physiological changes. The method can be used both in linear and non-linear sequences as well as disjunctions in the observables. An event may be, for example, the failure of a system, because the abnormal behavior of a certain component is expressed in the irregularities of one or more observables or the early recognition or pre-acute prediction of a particular critical condition of a patient, for example. The systems themselves may also represent geophysical or abstract units such as population or economic systems in which the deviation from a defined normal condition is predicted.
In the case of complex processes, or systems, events are triggered by numerous factors. Such factors may appear in various manners so that different kinds of behavior of factors can lead to the same event. Prediction of events, such as a so-called decompensation among cardiac patients, has therefore been possible only with a high degree of imprecision up to now.
It is therefore the purpose of the present invention to provide a method and arrangement to predict at least one system event and a corresponding computer program and a corresponding machine-readable storage medium for the prediction of an event that avoid the above-mentioned disadvantages and are, in particular, robust in coping with heterogeneous signal progressions before certain events.